lawmakers have no choice but to give in to the white house demands to raise tax breaks on the wealthy if they want to achieve their main goal of entitlement reform. >> there are a growing group of thugs looking at this and realizing we don't have a lot of cards as it relates to the tax issues before year-end. >> will i accept the tax increase as part of a deal to solve our problems? yes. >> senate republicans are facing opposition to their tax concessions in the house and democrats haven't been too receptive to their idea owes entitlement reforms. for more on this, jens is still with us. we've got, what, two working weeks until the end of the year. what's your base view here as to how this plays out? >> our base case is that we will get a type of deal probably later until the year. so i don't think it will be much of a christmas holiday for the key negotiators. i would say 60% to 70% probability that we get that pancake deal. then the details will have to be hammered out next year on a more comprehensive tax reform and so forth. if that's the case, then that should give a bit of a boo